Ipsos MORI February poll
MORI have released their monthly political monitor. The topline figures, with changes from their January poll, are CON 39%(+2), LAB 37%(-1), LDEM 16%(nc). The fieldwork was conducted between the 21st and 26th February, so it's actually slightly older than last weekend's YouGov poll.
The two point Conservative lead seems much smaller than that shown in other recent polls, but is an improvement for the Conservatives from the January MORI poll which - uniquely amongst all the polls in the last four months - showed a Labour lead. The 37% figure Labour are recording in this poll is significantly higher than the level of support they are recording in other companies' polls, but is actually marginally down on January's figure.
It is difficult to know what to make of this - in hindsight I'm tempted to dismiss the January MORI poll as a rogue, and therefore see this one as good for Labour. Overall though we shouldn't obsess too much over the ups and downs of individual voting intention polls since right now the next one is likely to contradict you. Leads and figures seem rather erratic at the moment, probably because there isn't a clear trend so we are seeing only noise - the Tories in the high 30s or low 40s depending on the pollster, Labour in the low thirties to mid thirties depending on the pollster, Lib Dems around 16%-17% or up at 21% depending on the pollster.
On MORI's other questions, crime and immigration remain the most important issues by far when asked what the single most important issue facing the country is. On the combined question that asks people to list more than one important issue they lead with 50% and 44% respectively, following by NHS on 25% and then the economy on 18%. The economy has actually risen significantly up the table - last month it was slightly higher at 20%, but looking back it never rose above 14% last year, it peaked at 11% in 2006, in fact you have to go back to 1999 to find a time when as many people thought the economy was one of the important issues facing the country.
