Initial findings of the Polling Inquiry
The MRS/BPC Polling Inquiry under Pat Sturgis is due to release it's initial findings at a meeting this afternoon (and a final written report in March). While I expect much more detail this afternoon they've press released the headline findings overnight. As I suggested here, they've pointed to unrepresentative samples as the main cause of the polling error back in May. There is not yet any further detail beyond "too much Labour, not enough Conservative"; we'll have to wait until this afternoon to find out what they've said about the exact problems with samples and why they may have been wrong.
The inquiry conclude that other potential causes of error (such as respondents misreporting their intentions ("shy Tories"), unregistered voters, question wording and ordering) made at most a modest contribution to the error. They say the evidence on late swing was inconclusive, but that even if it did happen, it only accounted for a small proportion of the error. The inquiry also say they could not rule out any herding.
The overnight press release doesn't hint at any conclusions or recommendations about how polls are reported or communicated to the press and the public, but again, perhaps there will be more on that this afternoon. Till then...
