ICM's monthly Guardian poll
ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(+2), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 18%(-4). It was conducted between the 20th and 22nd of February.
The raw changes from the last Guardian poll obviously suggest a sharp fall in Lib Dem support, with both Labour and the Conservatives benefitting. However, if we cast our minds back that last ICM poll showed a rather surprising 6 point leap in Liberal Democrat support with no obvious cause. Despite the lack of an obvious cause, Populus and ComRes polls showing a similar pattern seemed to support it, until YouGov and MORI showed a distict lack of a Lib Dem gain. With ICM now showing them back down, it's looking like that 22% was a blip. It's possible that the Lib Dems really shot up temporarily for a week then slumped back down again, but more likely random chance just provided ICM with a particularly Lib Dem inclined sample. We'll never know.
Taking a wider view the poll shows the Conservatives maintaining a healthy double point lead, and unlike some other recent polls doesn't show Labour falling below the psychologically important 30 point level.
On other questions in the poll ICM asked about the best party on issues. Exact figures aren't available yet, but the Guardian reports that the Conservatives now lead on most issues. Predictably they are ahead on law and order, which is normally a Tory banker. They are now pretty much neck and neck on education, substantially ahead on the economy in general and narrowly ahead on the present economic crisis. Labour remain ahead on health, which is normally a banker for them and apparently on terrorism. The article implies the Lib Dems are ahead on the environment - at least, they are ahead of the Conservatives.
I take issue with one sentence in the Guardian's report, "Fears that the recession would push issues such as immigration up the political agenda are backed by today's figures. It lies fourth equal in importance, cited as a priority by 9%." This shows the peril of taking a poll in isolation.
There are far more regular and better trackers of what issues people think are important, and they have not yet shown any rise in concern over immigration. MORI's monthly, unprompted tracker of what issues people think are important - full data here - shows 21% cited immigration as an important issue in January, the third highest after the economy and unemployment. That is high, but if you go back to early 2008 and 2007 it was typically cited by over 40% of respondents, so the trend is downwards. It may very well rise in the future - we haven't seen MORI's issue tracker for February and the effect of the BJFBW strikes - but so far there's no evidence of it.
