ICM shows no "smeargate" effect
ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has topline figures, with changes from the last ICM poll, of CON 40%(-4), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 19%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 17th and 19th April.
It shows a sharply different result from the two polls at the weekend, which were taken to show a big jump in the Tory lead. One of those polls was carried out by ICM's sister company Marketing Sciences and I assumed it had been carried out using ICM's methodology. If so the two polls are telling rather different stories!
This poll would have been conducted while the smear email saga was still all over the media, so it's unlikely to be the case that there was a blip that immediately vanished again. This is actually the lowest Conservative lead in an ICM poll since December, which given the horrendous week Labour have had in the media seems a somewhat unlikely trend.
Tomorrow MORI's monthly political monitor, which was also carried out over the weekend, should appear tomorrow and perhaps that will clear things up a bit - otherwise we'll never know for sure the effect of the smear emails on Labour's public support, since the next round of polls will be subject to whatever positive or negative effect the budget has.
Looking beyond the topline figures, the underlying trends are rather better for the Conservatives. Cameron & Osborne now have a 10 point lead over Brown & Darling as the most trusted team to run the economy, up from 2 points the last time ICM asked the question in January. The Conservatives are also seen as the party most likely to "use power honestly" - backed by 29% to Labour's 20% and the Lib Dems 13% (implying that 38% of people wouldn't trust any of them).
