ICM show 1 point Tory lead - CON 37, LAB 36, LD 16

Anthony Wells

— 1 min read
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ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian, conducted after this week's budget, has the Conservatives back ahead - CON 37%(+2), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 16%(-2). Changes are from their February poll, before both the budget and the intervention in Libya.

This is the first poll to show a Conservative lead since December, and the first time ICM have done so since October. I will add the caveat I always offer when a poll shows something unusual or unexpected, that it may just be an outlier and we should wait to see it confirmed. Having said that though, YouGov's polls this week have also shown a post-budget, post-Libya movement back to the Conservatives. The two companies actually have the Conservatives at the same level of support - 37% - the difference is in Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with ICM continuing to show the Liberal Democrats at a much higher level than other companies, and consequentially showing Labour lower.

Looking at the rest of the poll, ICM also found a significant movement of support in favour of the scale of the government's cuts. While 35% people still think the cuts go too far, this is down from 45% in November. 28% think the balance is about right, and 29% think the cuts are not severe enough, up by 15 points since November. That last figure here is particularly startling - suggesting a third of people would like even bigger cuts. Compare it to YouGov's regular trackers on whether the cuts are too deep, too shallow or about right. YouGov too have shown the proportion of people thinking the cuts are too deep falling (down to 44% from 51% a month or two back),

but they only find 9% thinking the cuts aren't big enough.

Heading back to the ICM poll, on the budget itself, the biggest chunk of ICM's respondents (48%) think it will make no difference to the economy, of the rest those thinking it will help the economy outnumber those thinking it will hurt it by 9 points. Finally on the cuts in fuel tax 21% think the measures in the budget were about right, 4% say they went too far, 70% say they didn't go far enough.

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