ICM poll of marginal seats
Sunday's News of the World carries a new ICM poll of 192 Labour held marginal constituencies where the Conservatives are in second place. The poll shows a swing of 11.5%
in these seats, which according to ICM would equate to 164 Conservative gains and a majority of 78 seats. ICM did a similar poll back in April, and found a 9% swing in these seats - though they are not directly comparable since that poll covered only 145 seats.
Theoretically if there was an 11.5% swing across the whole country it would equate to a 20 point Conservative lead in the polls, though it is more likely that there is just a larger swing in these seats (we know, for example, from the PoliticsHome poll of different groups of marginal seats that there is a lower Labour to Conservative swing in Liberal Democrat seats) so in reality we can't extrapolate a national vote share from this poll.
Back in April ICM asked people in Lab/Con marginal seats to say whether people rated Cameron or Brown more highly on various things: the only issue where Brown lead was dealing with the credit crunch. They gave the same list of things today, and nothing has changed. People in these marginal seats still trust Gordon Brown more than David Cameron to deal with the credit crunch by a margin of 43% to 35%. Unfortunately for Brown, they still rate David Cameron more highly everywhere else: on dealing with the rising cost of living, setting taxes, fighting terrorism, moderning the NHS, schools, immigration
and generally being Prime Minister.
There was, however, strong support for Gordon Brown remaining Prime Minister for now. 58% wanted him to carry on, with only 36% saying he should step down. Amongst Labour supporters in these seats only 15% now want him to go.
ICM also asked about some of the policies that were announced at the party conferences, without identifying them with any particular party. The Conservative pledge to freeze council tax for two years was supported by 71% of people in these seats, the Labour promise to extend subsidized child care to two year olds was supported by 62%, and the Liberal Democrat promise to cut the rate of income tax but cutting spending by £20 billion was supported by 51%.
