ICM give the Conservatives an 11-point lead

A new ICM poll in the Sunday papers apparently has topline voting intention figures (with charges from their last poll) of CON 41% (+4), LAB 30% (-1), LDEM 19% (-2). The exact dates of the poll aren't available yet, but normally ICM polls published on a Sunday have fieldwork conducted between Wednesday and Friday, so it's likely this poll was conducted when Labour's funding row was at its height. (UPDATE - the News of the World report is here, and the poll was actually conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. It should go without saying that this isn't the strongest Tory lead for 15 years, it's the strongest lead for 8 months...but hey, that wouldn't have been a less impressive headline wouldn't it? Sheesh)

If confirmed the the changes in vote share would suggest a boost for the Conservatives, a slight fall for Labour and a larger fall for the Liberal Democrats since the last ICM poll a week ago. However, that poll was itself somewhat strange, showing a huge drop in Conservative support and an equally massive 6 point jump in Lib Dem support. I suspect those were down sample error, and hence the Conservatives haven't really risen so much and the Liberal Democrats haven't really fallen in this latest poll.

Putting the immediate changes from the rather dubious last ICM poll aside, the poll confirms the same picture we've seen elsewhere: the Conservatives are pretty steady around the 40% or low 40s mark - YouGov had them up at 43% but we've seen no consistent sign of them profiting from Labour's misfortune. The Lib Dems have progressed from their autumn lows are are back in the mid or high teens depending on the pollster. Labour's support has fractured over the last month, compared to the polls at the end of October they are between 6 and 8 points down. As with YouGov and MORI's recent polls - the picture ICM are giving is that Labour are back where they worse during their worst ratings under Tony Blair.