ICM April Poll
ICM's April poll suggests a narrowing of the Tory lead. The headline figures with changes from ICM's last poll are CON 37%(-4), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 21%(+3). The Labour and Lib Dem figures are pretty much par for the course from ICM polls, and are similar to the levels of support ICM have been recording this year (though the level of support found for the Lib Dems tends to be more erratic than Labour), but the Tory vote is down slightly, having been at 40% or above in the last three ICM polls. The poll was conducted between April 20th and 22nd.
The hypothetical question naming party leaders and asking how respondents would vote with Brown as Labour leader as usual shows a larger Conservative lead, though not to the freakish degree of 15 points that was found last month and splashed across the media. Voting intention with Brown as leader stands at CON 40%, LAB 28%, LDEM 20%.
In comparisons with Gordon Brown, David Cameron's position has strengthened (or perhaps more likely, Brown's has weakened) - he has a one point deficit to Brown when respondents were asked who was most likely to make the right decisions when the going got tough compared to a seven point deficit last September; Cameron also has an 11 point lead over Brown as the man most likely to take Britain in the right direction compared to a 5 point lead in September. A large majority of respondents (78%) said they would like to see a contest when Tony Blair stood down as Labour leader.
Finally, 54% of respondents want to see a change of government after the election, with only 21% of people wanting Labour to remain in office. This shouldn't be a huge surprise - remember the headline voting intention figures exclude don't knows and won't votes, so the 30% of voters supporting Labour is probably roughly equivalent to the 21% of people overall. This is however another suggestion that there is a public mood of "time for a change" - Labour must hope that the transition from Tony Blair to his successor, presumably Gordon Brown, will diffuse some of that desire or it will be a huge benefit to the Conservatives come the next election.
