Huhne Takes the Lead
After a day of bizarre speculation over an unpublished private poll yesterday, YouGov have today released the details of a further poll of Lib Dem members - this time commissioned by John Stevens (presumably the former Conservative MEP and one time leader of the Pro-Euro Conservative Party, who is listed as a Huhne supporter) showing Chris Huhne, the dark horse candidate who only entered Parliament 8 months ago, is in the lead.
According to YouGov first preference voting intentions of Liberal Democrat members who have decided how to vote are Huhne 38%, Campbell 34%, Hughes 27% with 16% of members still undecided. Once Simon Hughes is eliminated his support splits very slightly in favour of Ming Campbell - Campbell 39% to Huhne's 36%.
Bearing in mind that this poll has a sample size of only 401 and hence a comparatively large margin of error, this means that the Lib Dem leadership race at the moment is too close to call - it could go Huhne, it could go Campbell.
Looking at the other questions in the poll, there seem to be real contrasts between what Lib Dem members think are the strengths of the different candidates - back during the Conservative leadership contest polls tended to show that members preferred David Cameron on almost every ground. The Lib Dem poll on the other hand highlights what members see as the candidates' strong points - Campbell is seen as the best candidate for party unity and the best Commons performer as well as the most honest and experienced of the candidates. On the downside Lib Dem members see him as the weakest candidate in terms of policy, experience outside politics and in appealling to women and young people.
Huhne is seen as the candidate who will most appeal to women, with the best understanding of life outside politics and the best policies - predictably he performs worst of the three candidates in terms of experience.
Finally Simon Hughes is seen as the least honest, the least able to lead a united party, the worst Commons performer and the candidate least likely to boost the number of Lib Dem seats at the next election. The only question where he tops the other two candidates is in appealling to young people.
Overall this suggests that Lib Dems are divided almost equally between a candidate they see as a reliable and experienced safe pair of hands, and a rival whose policies they prefer, and think might appeal to people more, but who lacks experience.
With the race this close it could go either way.
