How SNP Members Will Elect Their Next Leader
The race to decide who will replace Nicola Sturgeon is now well underway, as Humza Yousaf has taken an early lead in endorsements. Polling from YouGov yesterday shows the magnitude of the big challenge facing all candidates - the public doesn't know who they are. When asked who would be the best replacement for Nicola Sturgeon, "don't know" was the clear leader on 54%.
Naturally, as the leadership contest rolls on and candidates are given the platform to set out their stalls, this number will be expected to shrink. At the time of polling, conducted before Kate Forbes faced scrutiny for her socially conservative positions, she was the frontrunner, supported by 10% of the public and 13% of SNP voters. Humza Yousef got 5% and 8% respectively, whilst Ash Regan was the only candidate more popular amongst the public than SNP supporters - on 2% and 1%.
Where this - and the events of the past few days - leaves the leadership contest is anyone's guess. It's difficult to judge decisively either way without polling of SNP members. If the endorsement of SNP politicians is anything to go by, Forbes' stances won't win her any favours. Whilst Sturgeon's gender reform bill was unpopular, SNP opinion was fairly evenly split - at least going by past voters. Though public opinion is far more accepting of gay marriage so her position here may present more of a hurdle.
As for the process of the contest, assuming candidates can reach the requisite 100 member nominations from 20 local branches, they will then face off in a membership election conducted by single transferable vote. This is the same electoral system used in Irish Dáil elections, Northern Irish Assembly elections and Scottish local elections. Voters rank each candidate and, after first preferences are counted, the lowest scoring candidate is eliminated and their votes redistributed. Leading to a more proportional result.
In this instance, the electoral system may work in Kate Forbes' favour. Assuming Ash Regan is first to go, her second-choice preferences would be re-allocated and, based on Ash's staunch opposition to gender reform, it seems more likely this would fall in favour of Forbes. This system may therefore be preferable for her camp than a first past the post-election which could see considerable vote splitting.
However, at this stage - just days into the contest and without any recent polling into the views of SNP members - it seems overanalysing electoral implications is somewhat superfluous. With a majority of SNP voters undecided, as of Monday, it's still early days.
