How Robust is Starmer's Economy Lead?
Despite what internal Conservative pollsters might brief the national press, Labour leads on economic trust. This is common across pollsters and remains robust almost independently of question framing.
When voters are asked which party is best placed to manage the economy, Labour consistently leads. PeoplePolling and Deltapoll, admittedly with slightly different wording, put the margin at 16% and 14% respectively. Although PeoplePolling's margin seems greater, the high proportion of non-commital responses does play into some Conservative arguments that Labour's polling leads are "soft" - this is less the case with Deltapoll.
Irrespective of how the question is posed, Labour leads the Conservatives. BMG and Redfield & Wilton both ask voters which party is best placed to manage the economy, without prompting for leaders, and finds a Labour lead of 8%. YouGov asks the same question of the economy, taxation and unemployment specifically and finds a concurrent 8% margin on the economy - it's even larger on the other two issues.
Ipsos asks which party and leader would do a good/bad job at securing growth. Whilst the public doesn't suppose either would do well, the net score of Labour and Keir Starmer is 5% higher than for the Conservatives and Sunak.
One piece of polling might suggest a somewhat closer picture. Redfield & Wilton asked voters which of the two party leaders they think could "build a strong economy" - the results put both leaders level.
This does suggest Rishi Sunak is still outperforming his party, despite recent evidence this effect had been closing, at least on the economy specifically - Labour leads the Conservatives on economic trust by 8% in the same poll. It also might lend strength to Conservative claims that retaining their lead on economic credibility is within reach - especially as they're level-pegging even with high "don't know" responses.
However, Isaac Levido shouldn't get too far ahead of himself. It's just one question in one poll that doesn't even give them the lead. When the same question was asked just a week before, Keir Starmer had a lead of 5% - the large shift (especially given political and economic circumstances) suggests it's an outlier.
Every pollster is currently suggesting Labour leads on the issue of the economy - given the evidence, it's very hard to disagree. That being said, the lead is still somewhat soft, and the economy remains an issue where the Conservative Party outperforms its brand. Although Labour's lead is robust, they shouldn't take it for granted.
