How long should Tony Blair stay for?

It's been a difficult week for Tony Blair, but a couple of recent polls shows that rumours of his dimise may be premature. An ICM poll for Monday's Newsnight showed that 28% of people think that he should resign now, but a quarter of people think he should go back on his earlier commitment and stay on until after the next election.

Unfortunately ICM's poll wasn't broken down by party allegiance - past polls asking questions about when Tony Blair should stand down have tended to show that the greatest proportion of people saying that Tony Blair should resign immediately are Conservative voters - in other words, they aren't people who want Blair to make way for Gordon Brown, they are people who would want rid of any Labour PM.

Populus's latest poll in the Times does it rather better, asking whether respondents agree that “the sooner Tony Blair goes and is replaced by Gordon Brown the better”. Suddenly Conservative voters aren't quite so keen on Blair going, with a bare majority thinking it better that Blair stay. Labour voters disgree by 54% to 41% - Blair might be in trouble, but a majority of Labour's supporters don't want to see him leave just yet.

Blair's position is weakening though - a majority of respondents thought that David Blunkett's departure had damaged Tony Blair's personal position, and almost 60% thought that "his authority is now ebbing away and he is not as much in control of the Government and its agenda as he was a few months ago". This wasn't just Tory and Lib Dem supporters either - 47% of Labour voters agreed. It will not do Tony Blair any favours if the perception that he no longer has the ability to control the government gathers ground.

That said, the bottom line is in Populus's poll Labour still enjoy a lead in voting intention - CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 19% - and a leader who enjoys an eight point lead over his opponants should by rights be in a strong position. However, by this time next month the Conservative Party will have finally chosen a new leader and there may yet be some interesting changes in party support.

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