Labour's Average Poll Lead is Perceptibly Shrinking

At a recent away day to Windsor, election strategist Isaac Levido briefed Conservative MPs that Labour's polling lead was 'soft' and reports suggest the party hopes things are beginning to turn. So, does recent polling agree?

There is certainly evidence that Rishi Sunak's personal approvals have seen a jump (following a previously steady decline) , and over the course of February the polling gap between the parties - still firmly around the 20% margin - has narrowed slightly. This is borne out when the poll leads from members of the BPC are plotted chronologically.

Taking a look more closely at individual pollsters and although there is some evidence of a slight Conservative recovery - this is by no means universal. Deltapoll, YouGov, Techne and PeoplePolling all show modest Conservative gains over the month - between 2% and 4%. Meanwhile, other pollsters - such as Ipsos, Omnisis and Redfield & Wilton show little such evidence.

Our polling average does also suggest the gap has closed somewhat - it's currently sat on 20.2%, which is the smallest so far in 2023. Whilst it had been fluctuating, it seems to have closed a little in the first week of March - perhaps as poll results in the wake of Rishi's Northern Ireland deal filter through.

However, though Rishi does seem to be making some progress, it's worth putting these results into context. Whilst a lead of 20.2% is smaller than since January - it's still larger than it had been in December. Changes to the overall picture are also marginal in the grand scheme of things. Our polling average has remained consistently in the 19-23% region since November. At best, Rishi seems to have just recovered some of the ground he lost at the start of the year.

As such, Labour's polling lead remains a monumental bridge for the Conservatives to cross. Sunak has made a start and seems to have some momentum behind him - however his progress has so far been slow.