Friday round up
D minus 27 Tonights polls: YouGov/Sun (8th-9th Apr) CON 40%(nc), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 20%(+2) Harris/Daily Mail (7th-8th Apr) CON 37%(nc), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 22%(+2) Harris/Metro (31st Mar-6th Apr) CON 37%(nc), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 20%(+1)
There are three new polls tonight. Strangely enough two are from the same company - this morning there was a rather old Harris poll from before the election was announced in the Metro, then this evening there was an up-to-date Harris poll in the Mail. All three of the polls showed pretty much the same trend: Labour and the Conservatives pretty steady and the Liberal Democrats creeping upwards a bit.
A fourth poll today was a constituency poll in Norwich South, showing a rather surprising swing towards Labour in Charles Clarke's constituency, and the Liberal Democrats hemorrhaging support to the Greens.
In the bigger picture of the polls Conservative support is ranging between 37%-40%, thought it is only YouGov who have hit the 40% figure for the Tories. There is more deviation in terms of Labour's support. The established pollsters - ICM, MORI, Populus, YouGov and ComRes (as well as TNS who use very traditional methods) all have Labour in the low thirties, ranging between 30%-33%. The newer online companies - Opinium, Harris and Angus Reid - all have Labour in the high twenties, ranging between 26%-29%.
The Liberal Democrats now seem to be getting at least 20% with most polls, getting up to 22% occassionally and even 23% with ICM, the pollster who tends to give them the most positive ratings. The exception is Opinium, who tend to give them very low figures, and YouGov who, while giving them 20% in their most recent poll have been tending to show them in the high teens. Finally there remains some sharp contrasts in the levels of support for minor parties - the "others". Once again the difference here tends to be between the established pollsters and the new online companies, with Opinium, Harris and Angus Reid showing them up in the mid teens, while the longer established companies show them down near 10% or 11%. Even so, the levels of support for others do seem to be falling as we approach the election - notably the most recent Populus and ICM polls had them back in single figures.
Tonight's biggest political story seems to be the Conservatives finally confirming they will offer a tax break for married couples. The Harris poll in the Mail tonight contains one question on the subject - 65% said the next government should support marriage by raising tax allowances for married couples, with 35% disagreeing (thought it's one of those questions that depend a lot on how it is asked).
We are heading into the first weekend of the campaign, so I would expect a large number of polls for the Sunday papers tomorrow night, including a new marginals poll.
