First Polls on Ken Clarke

Ken Clarke’s official entry into the Conservative leadership race has predictably lead to some new polls. There was a new
target="_blank" >ICM poll on yesterday’s Newsnight, and this morning’s Times carries a new
target="_blank" >Populus poll.

Both polls found - as all previous polls have - that Ken Clarke was far and away the most popular candidate amongst the general public, most due to the fact that he the only candidate with broad public recognition. Following the extensive press coverage he recieved in the last week, his lead is now even greater. Populus found 41% supported Clarke as the next leader, with only 10% backing David Davis in second, other candidates were in single figures.

ICM’s figures were almost identical - 40% for Ken Clarke, 10% David Davis and others in single figures. More interestingly ICM also asked about whether people would be more or less likely to vote Tory if Ken Clarke or David Davis were leader - in the past questions like this have given somewhat contrasting answers for Clarke. ICM found that 20% of people said that they would be more likely to vote Conservative if Ken Clarke was leader, with only 8% less likely to vote Tory. In contrast only 7% said they would be more likely to vote Tory under David Davis’s leadership, while 10% said they would be less likely.

I always view figures like this with some scepticism - how many of those people saying they are more likely to vote Tory vote Tory anyway? How many of those people saying they would be more likely to vote Tory would actually vote Tory, or are they just using the question to express a preference for Ken? Either way, it does suggest that the idea of a Ken Clarke leadership would win more votes than the idea of a David Davis leadership. The reality of a Clarke or Davis leadership would not necessarily have the same effect.

On an entirely unrelated matter, across the ocean
target="_blank" >Mark Blumenthal has a good dissection of the first US polls on the handling of Hurricane Katrina.