Final lap
A year to go until the general election, meaning there are awful lot of "year to go till the election" posts out there (though two new things certainly worth looking at are the new British Election Study site here and the Polling Observatory's new election prediction here. The election prediction by Rob Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien takes a similar approach to Stephen Fisher's, which I've discussed here before, in averaging current polls and then assuming that they move in the same way over the next 12 months as they have done in the final year of previous Parliaments. Unlike Steve's projection, which has a Tory lead, Ford et al predict a miniscule (0.4%) Labour lead. The difference between the two projections are small, and technical - Ford et al assume a regression towards the long term average, I think Steve assumes a regression towards the previous election result, the inputs are slightly different (the Polling Observatory ones corrects for errors at the last election, my average which Steve uses doesn't - largest effect of that will be that Steve predicts a higher Lib Dem score) and there are different smoothing effects in there. Expect more predictions along these lines to pop out of the woodwork in the year ahead.
Anyway, I've previously written about what I think are the big five concepts that will decide the election - how the improving economy impacts on voting intentions (especially if or as wages start to rise above inflation)? Whether Ed Miliband's mediocre opinion poll ratings will increase in salience closer to the election, given they aren't currently prevening a Labour lead? If and how quickly UKIP support subsides following the European elections? To what degree, if at all, Lib Dem incumbents can resist the tide against them? And, of course, what happens in the Scottish independence referendum? So for today, I'm instead looking at the timetable for the year ahead. These are essentially the "known unknowns" - the things that will happen before the next election but which we don't yet know the impact of, as opposed to all those unpredictable events that will also happen.
25 MAY 2014. European election results. The last set of mid-term elections and the beginning of the final lap. Barring any big suprises UKIP will come top or almost top, the media will go into another Farage frenzy for a couple of weeks and UKIP will enjoy a big spike in the Westminster opinion polls. Do not be surprised to see them at 20% or more in some polls. The question then becomes one of how much of that support is retained over the next eleven months. Also watch how the other parties react, will the Conservative backbenches panic, will the leadership be tempted to ape UKIP? I expected them to go all ferrets-in-a-sack after UKIP did well in the local elections last year, but they held it together surprisingly well. If the Lib Dems do incredibly badly keep an eye on them too - they have been incredibly disciplined as they march towards the guns so far.
5 JUNE 2014. Newark - coming shortly after the European elections we have the Newark by-election. The Conservatives have a fairly chunky majority, it's not ideal territory for UKIP and they've picked a candidate who plays to UKIP stereotypes rather than challenging them like Diane James did in Eastleigh, but the timing means UKIP will likely still be enjoying a big boost.
JUNE 2014. The Queens Speech and the Private Members Ballot - the final session of a Parliament won't have many exciting bills left, watch who wins the private members ballot though. If a compliant enough Conservative comes top of the ballot then they'll re-introduce the EU Referendum Bill that got lost in the Lords last time, and if it passes the Commons unamended again the Parliament Act would come into play. Labour and the Liberal Democrats may have to act to kill it in the Commons this time round. The Conservatives will hope a second try at the referendum bill will help win back UKIP supporters, a less charitable interpretation would be that it will offer the Conservatives an exciting opportunity to bang on about a subject normal voters don't much care about every Friday for six months.
JULY 2014? Summer reshuffle - David Cameron has at least one big reshuffle before the general election (two if the coalition is brought to a formal end at some point), which will be his opportunity to put in place the team he wants for the general election. Cameron's nature so far has been to avoid lots of changes and it's rare for a reshuffle to be drastic enough to entrude upon public opinion, but it will determine who some of the big players are.
18 SEPT 2014 Scottish referendum - this is by far the biggest known unknown still facing us. If there is a NO vote (and while the trend has been towards YES, all the polls in the campaign have shown NO ahead) then it will at least have a substantial political impact in Scotland. In the event there is a YES vote absolutely everything would change. There would be a question mark over whether David Cameron should resign, certainly the political agenda would instantly be dominated by questions about the Scottish independence negotiations and the 2015 election would be fought in the knowledge that 40 odd Labour MPs would be elected for a period of only a year.
21 SEPT 2014 - Conference season. This is one of the few fixed, big events of the year that has the potential to impact on public opinion. The dates are a bit mixed up this year - normally the order goes Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives. Because of the normal dates would have clashed with the Scottish refernedum the Liberal Democrats have moved their conference to last, so it will go Lab, Con, LD. All three will be a showcase for the general election, people will be paying more attention as the election approaches and expect an up-and-down in the polls as each party gets its chance in the spotlight.
OCTOBER 2014? New EU Commissioner - not something that will be noticed by the general public, but does have the opportunity to precipitate a by-election if a sitting MP is sent off to Europe as the new British EU Commissioner. It might even precipitate....
DATE TBC. Boris makes his mind up - we don't know when it will happen, but at some point or other Boris Johnson will either stand for Parliament, or rule out the possibility of standing at the next election (even if that's at close of nominations... though I expect the Conservative party will want to shut it down one way or the other long before that). Given it's Boris it will attract public attention, how the Conservative party manage any return to Parliament will determine if they can use Boris in a role that helps them or if it's seem only as a first shot in a leadership campaign.
DEC 2014. Autumn statement - presumably any big changes will be in the budget, but if the economic news is positive by the Autumn it's a chance for George Osborne to highlight it.
DATE TBC. The end of the coalition - at some point the coalition between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives has to end or, at least, it needs to be become clear how it will end. The three obvious possiblities are a disordered breakdown over some issue, resulting in a minority Tory government, disengaging to supply and demand for the final few months, or remaining in coalition right to polling day. I suspect the first one won't happen now, that leaves us an ordered break up with the Lib Dem ministers resigning but continuing to support the government in matters of confidence, or remaining in office right till the end. Even in the latter case, in order to effectively fight an election at some point the Lib Dems will need to appoint spokespeople in areas where they don't have cabinet ministers and announce policies different to those of the coalition government. How will that impact on Lib Dem support?
JAN 2015. The long campaign begins - it many ways its begun already, or will begin after the Euros or after conference season. It's a matter of perception, but Christmas is the last real break before the election and at their return in the New Year we will likely see a slew of announcements and policies, the start of the real campaign, and in my view the time when the polls start to come into focus and start to resemble the final result. Don't get me wrong - there will still be time for things to change, there will still be a budget, manifestos, announcements and possibly debates, but the clock is ticking.
MAR 2015?. The Budget. Budgets are often seen as an opportunity for governments to win support by handing out election bribes. As I write here every year, in recent budgets that really doesn't seem to have been the result - it's more common for bad budgets to damage support than good ones to win support. Still, it will be an opportunity for Osborne to give away something to try and win votes, or at least try and portray himself as a reliable safe pair of hands that the country will want to re-elect.
30 MAR 2015. Parliament dissolved.
APR 2015?. The Leaders debates. How much impact they had last time is still debated (did they genuinely increase Lib Dem support, or was it all froth? Did the opportunity cost of the debates dominating the campaign prevent other changes in public support?), but they certainly have the potential to make a difference. We obviously don't know what the format will be, when they will happen, who they will involve or even if they'll happen (the genie can go back in the bottle - after the famous JFK v Nixon debate in 1960 there wasn't another one till 1976) - much of the briefing now by Labour and the Conservatives is probably largely grandstanding and negotiating stances, partly aimed at showing willing so they can paint it as the "other side's fault" if they don't go ahead. I wouldn't expect any debates to have as big an impact as in 2010 because they aren't "new" anymore - the exception would be if somehow they other parties did agree to Nigel Farage taking part. For a smaller party what happens at the debate is not as important as the credibility brought by being part of the debate to begin with.
7 MAY 2015 - Election Day
