Eleven weeks to go

Anthony Wells

— 3 min read
Share

Here are this week's polls

YouGov/S Times (13/2/15) - CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% Populus (14/2/15) - CON 31%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% ICM/Guardian (15/2/15) - CON 36%, LAB 32%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%, GRN 7% Ashcroft (15/2/15) - CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8% TNS BMRB (16/2/15) - CON 28%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (16/2/15) - CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8% YouGov/Sun (17/2/15) - CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (18/2/15) - CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (19/2/15) - CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% Populus (19/2/15) - CON 31%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 17%, GRN 6%

With the exceptions of the rather anomalous looking ICM poll with its four point Tory lead and the TNS poll showing its typically larger Labour lead (two outliers I discussed here), the polls have returned to the same picture we've had for the whole year so far - a very close race with Labour just ahead. The UKPR polling average stands at CON 32%(nc), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 15%(+1), GRN 6%(-1) - none of those figures has moved more than one point away from that so far this year. The race is pretty much static.

Scottish and Constituency polls

Survation put out their monthly Scottish poll for the Daily Record this week, giving the SNP a slightly reduced but still very healthy 17 point lead over Labour. Lord Ashcroft released four polls of Conservative held UKIP target seats, showing UKIP just a point behind in Castle Point and only three points behind in Boston and Skegness. I wrote about both here.

Week 7

  • The Conservatives started the week promising to cut sickness benefits for fat people or addicts who refuse treatment. This is an interesting example of policy and how to look at public reaction to them. At one level such policies are popular - by 57% to 28% people support stopping sickness benefits for overweight people who don't seek weightless treatment, by 64% to 23% people support stopping sickness benefits for addicts who don't seek treatment. However, the potential downside for such policies, especially for the Conservatives, is if it reinforces the party's image problems of being seen as heartless or unconcerned for the less well off. The same polling found 40% also thought the policy was uncaring and heartless.
  • Labour started the week talking about economic policy and had their policies endorsed by Lord Mandelson, the former business Secretary. There was a YouGov poll in the week asking if the endorsement of various retired politicians was an asset or a liability - 52% thought Mandelson's backing a liability, only 7% an asset. Tony Blair's endorsement was seen as little better - 14% an asset, 61% a liability. The reason for both is the same - most other politicians were seen an asset by supportwes of their own party, a liability by their opponents. Blair and Mandelson (and Michael Howard) were seen as liabilities by both their opponents' supporters and their own parties' supporters. According to today's news Peter Mandelson is now warning Labour against their tuition fees policy, so perhaps his criticism will be an asset!
  • On Thursday party donations for the end of 2014 were announced. The Conservatives received just over £8million, Labour just over £7m, the Liberal Democrats £3m (the party had a record year of donations, despite their precipitous drop in support since 2010), UKIP £1.5m and the Greens a quarter of a million. There was some polling on party donations last weekend, showing people pretty cynical about both main parties - by 48% to 30% people think Labour should try and reduce Union funding, by 52% to 25% people think the Conservatives should try and reduce their business funding. Around two thirds of people would support a cap on business and trade union donations, 51% would support a cap on individual donations to political parties, only 19% would support taxpayer funding.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015 and Elections Etc are below. Elections Etc and Election Forecast both have Labour and the Conservatives pretty much equal in predicted seat numbers, May 2015 are projecting Labour to have more seats, but not by very many.

Elections Etc - Hung Parliament, CON 281(nc), LAB 282(+1), LD 23(nc), SNP 40(-1), UKIP 3(nc) Election Forecast - Hung Parliament, CON 282(+2), LAB 280(-3), LD 25(-2), SNP 40(+3), UKIP 2(nc) May 2015 - Hung Parliament, CON 266(-3), LAB 275(+1), LD 26(+2), SNP 56(nc), UKIP 4(nc)

Read more