Electoral Reform

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To do with polling rather than opinion polling, but here's the meat from Nick Clegg's statement since most of it has provoked lots of comment here before now.

On fixed term Parliaments. Parliament will have a 5 year fixed term. Votes of confidence will be given a statutory basis, and still need a simple majority in the house. An early election would need a supermajority of 66%. The release valve to prevent a sitution where the PM loses a vote of confidence, there is no alternative PM with a majority, and no one has enough votes to dissolve Parliament is if a PM resigns and no one can form a government for 14 days, Parliament is automatically dissolved.

This leaves one interesting point unanswered - who is PM during that time? Traditionally the British constitution has abhored a vacuum, and the Palace has always endeavoured to have a gap of about half an hour between PMs. Would the PM who had "resigned" be expected to remain as caretaker? Would a caretaker be appointed? Given this is to be given a statutory footing, unlike past arrangements, it'll likely need to be addressed.

On AV, the referendum will, as expected, be on 5th May 2011. The question will be along the lines of "Do you want to adopt AV, yes or no" - approved, naturally, by the Electoral Commission.

Finally, on the boundary review the number of MPs will be reduced to 600, not the 585 in the Conservative manifesto. Seats will be equal in size to within 5%, with three exceptions. Firstly the Western Isles, secondly Orkney and Shetland (as at present) and thirdly, a geographical cap on the maximum size of a seat, which will be capped at the size of the largest current seat. I think this is Ross, Skye and Lochaber with a size of 1277947 hectares - in practice very few other seats come close to that size, so it will probably only come into play in the Scottish highlands.

The boundary review itself will be completed by 2013, to come into use in 2015, and the legislation will contain measures to ensure that (presumably thinning down the process somewhat), and the commission given resources to deliver it (presumably allowing them to do more than 3 counties at once).

UPDATE: In answer to a question on whether the boundary commission will respect county boundaries Nick Clegg has confirmed that equal size will take precedent over all other considerations (apart from his three exceptions), the implication being that county boundaries (and perhaps even ward boundaries - we shall see) would be crossed.

UPDATE2: On the electorates at the 2010 election the quota for new seats should be about 76,000. The actual boundary review though will use the electoral registers from December 2010.