Did MORI's poll show a low turnout would produce a hung Parliament?

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Here's a number 138 for John Rentoul's list of "questions to which the answer is no".

The Observer's report of Ipsos MORI's monthly poll contained this rather interesting nugget: "if turnout were to hit an unusual high of 78%, based on today's figures the Tories would enjoy a landslide parliamentary majority of 126. But if it slumped lower than the last general election to 50%, there would be a hung parliament."

Normally polls show Conservative voters saying they are much more likely to vote than Labour voters, with the conclusion normally being drawn that a low turnout would probably help the Conservatives. This seemed to fly in the face of that. The MORI tables are now out (here) and explain it all. It isn't a sudden switch in voting patterns, it's the Observer mixing up the two columns and getting it the wrong way round.

Taking only the 50% or so of people who say they are 10/10 certain, the shares of the vote equate to a Conservative majority of 125+ on a uniform swing. Taking everyone who expressed a party preference to MORI even if they said they were unlikely to vote (about 78% of respondents) would produce a lower Conservative lead and a hung Parliament.