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General Election

Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform

General Election

Data Modelling Now Has Tories Winning More Seats Than Reform

Despite polls since the Clacton by-election giving Reform an average lead over the Conservatives of 5 percentage points our default model now shows that on current polling the Conservatives would win 27 seats more than Reform. Labour would win 274 seats, more than double the trailing Tories. The heady days

By Editor 25 Aug 2026
Latest General Election Projection:  Knife Edge Coalitions

General Election

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

By Editor 29 Apr 2026

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