Could Labour lose the Scottish Elections?

Over the weekend the SNP released the figures from a new YouGov poll that showed them neck and neck with Labour amongst those certain to vote in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote. Gaining extra constituency seats wouldn't necessarily allow the SNP to catch Labour in seats - that depends upon the separate regional top up votes - but the poll certainly suggests an SNP and Lib Dem advance at Labour's expense.

The topline figures published by the SNP were based on the 59% of people who told YouGov they were 10/10 certain to vote. The full figures, with changes from the last Scottish Parliament elections in 2003, are LAB 30% (-5), SNP 29% (+5), LDEM 19% (+4), CON 13% (-4), SSP 4% (-2), Green 3% (+3).

It's worth remembering that "certain to vote" figures are not necessarily the best indicator of which people are likely to vote - for Westminster elections YouGov do not normally filter their results by likelihood to vote, though they have published certain to vote figures for lower turnout elections like the European Elections. The unfiltered voting intention figures for this poll are LAB 30%, SNP 26%, LDEM 20%, CON 14%, SSP 4%, Green 4% which still represents a significant swing from Labour.

Asked who would make the best First Minister for Scotland Alex Salmond had a convincing lead - 30% named him as their preference compared to 19% for Jack McConnell, 9% Annabelle Goldie and 7% for Nicol Stephen. Alex Salmond was also the most well known Scottish politican of those included in the survey

- 87% said they knew something about him, compared to 84% who knew something about Jack McConnell, 60% knew something about Nicola Sturgeon, 55% who knew something about Alistair Darling, 41% who knew something about Annabelle Goldie, 36% knew something about Nicol Stephen.

The survey also found a plurality in favour of Scottish independence - 46% in favour, 39% against.