Conservatives remain ahead in latest ICM poll

A new poll by ICM in the Sunday Express has topline figures, with changes from ICM's previous poll, of CON 43% (+3), LAB 35% (nc), LDEM 15% (-3). The poll was conducted between November 8th and 10th - Thursday to Saturday -

so there does not appear to have been any boost for the government following the announcements in the Queen's speech and the Lib Dem recovery in the last ICM poll, now looks rather like a blip. They are still up from their very lowest point, when they hit 14% in an ICM poll, but only just. Obviously the figures are a strong contrast with Populus's a week ago - Populus do use weighting that is somewhat more favourable to Labour than ICM's, but the difference is relatively small. Chances are one of the two polls is just an outlier thrown up by normal sample error.

If repeated at a general election on a uniform swing these figures would just give the Conservatives an overall majority. It's often quoted that the Conservative need a lead of around 11 points to win a majority -

that's based on a straight swing from Labour to the Conservatives, if the Lib Dems do badly and the Conservatives pick up seats from them they could win with a smaller lead (and in really swings are not uniform anyway, so any party could easily do better or worse than the uniform swing suggests depending upon how variables like tactical voting pan oout).

As in other recent polls Gordon Brown generally remains ahead of David Cameron asked about personal qualities, being seen as more courageous by 39% to 33%, better at handling the economy by 53% to 28% and as a strong leader. Cameron was seen as the most likeable by 46% to 33% and as most likely to get the issue of immigration right by 45% to 30%. These figures can't be directly compared to any other recent polls, so we can't tell if Brown is still falling, steadying or recovering - only that he remains ahead of David Cameron.