ComRes/Sunday Indy - CON 29, LAB 33, LD 8, UKIP 19

Anthony Wells

— 2 min read
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The monthly ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. Topline voting figures are CON 29%(nc), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(-1), Others 11%. A slight reduction in the Labour lead since a month ago, but still a comfortable lead.

For the European elections voting intentions are CON 20%(-2), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 35%(+1), GRN 7%(+2). This would give UKIP a very comfortable victory indeed next week, and see the Liberal Democrats pushed to fifth place (and on a uniform swing they'd probably lose all their MEPs).

With five days to go until the European elections we're obviously heading into final call territory, but my understanding is that ComRes have probably got another poll still to come before Thursday's election. European election polls so far are here.

The Sunday Telegraph also has a new European election due tonight, in this case from ICM, and there is due to be an ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday too, as well as the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll. I will update later...

UPDATE: And the ICM European poll is also out. Their topline figures are CON 26%(+4), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 25%(-2). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph last month (ICM did a more recent European poll for the Guardian last weekend, but that was by telephone rather than online). In contrast to the ComRes poll ICM have Labour ahead and the Conservatives and UKIP in a close race for second place.

UPDATE2: I expect some readers will be hoping for some explanation for the gap between these polls. I'm afraid I don't have a simple one to offer. Some of it might be down to ComRes using a very strict turnout filter, taking only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, something which has tended to help UKIP. ICM's tables aren't yet available, so I don't know for sure what they've done with turnout, but if their last online Euro poll is any guide they weighted by turnout (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are counted in full, people who say they are 9/10 certain to vote are counted as only 0.9 of a vote, and so on down). That would still help UKIP, but not as much as a strict 10/10 only policy. However, that really can't explain the whole of a ten point difference in UKIP support.

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