ComRes/Indy on Sunday - 36/40/10

There is an online ComRes poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday. Topline figures with changes from ComRes's last online poll are CON 36%(-1), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 14% - a lower Labour lead than the recent ComRes phone poll that showed Labour 8 points up, and the lowest Lib Dem score ComRes have reported so far.

The poll also asked people the question for the AV referendum (as opposed to their voting intention in the referendum, not an entirely pendantic difference - it means you can't give people a wouldn't vote option). They found AV ahead of FPTP by 36% to 30%, much in line with ICM's recent poll and in contrast to YouGov's tracker on AV which prefaces the question with definitions of FPTP and AV and shows FPTP ahead.

It appears ComRes weighted people's response to the AV question by their likelihood to vote in a general election (at least, they weighted by likelihood to vote and I can't see a likelihood to vote in the referendum question in the tabs) - it made only a minor difference, before weighting the figures were Yes 34%, No 27% - so it turned a Yes lead of 7% to one of 6%.

ComRes then asked if people agreed with the statement that "I could be persuaded to support changing the voting system in the forthcoming referendum in May when I have heard more about the arguments for and against". 60% of people who said don't know to the initial question agreed to this, which ComRes and the Indy seem to have interpreted as good news for the Yes campaign and conclude that if they add these potential yes voters they end up with Yes 58%, No 27%.

It doesn't appear that ComRes asked the corallary question, of whether people agreed that "I could be persuaded to oppose changing the voting system in the forthcoming referendum in May when I have heard more about the arguments for and against" - without that it's hard to draw any meaningful conclusions whatsoever from the other statement. We don't know if the proportion of people who may vote No is larger or smaller than those who may vote yes - by definition many of those don't know could go either way.

UPDATE: All AV referendum polls so far are here

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