ComRes show NO campaign 6 points ahead
There is a new ComRes poll out for the Indy on Sunday. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from ComRes's previous online poll a month ago, are CON 35%(-2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 15%(+3). A four point Labour lead is pretty typical of ComRes' online polls, which seem to be slightly more favourable to the Tories than their parallel phone polls for the Independent.
The poll also asked ComRes's regular tracker on AV voting intention, and found the NO campaign ahead by six points. Topline figures (weighted by likelihood to vote - though it's unclear whether ComRes asked specifically about likelihood to vote in the referendum) with changes from last month are YES 37%(+3), NO 43% (+6), Don't know 21%(-7).
As people make their minds up, the NO campaign seem to be consolidating a small lead. The last YouGov poll to ask the bare referendum question also found a NO lead for the first time. Populus found NO moving ahead, though did not ask the specific referendum wording. In contrast Angus Reid continue to show YES ahead.
ComRes asked various other questions (all as agree/disagree statements. ComRes/Indy/Indy on Sunday polls have a tendency to ask almost every question, no matter the subject or what they want to know, as an agree or disagree statement. It's beyond me why). The most interesting ones were some asking about the coalition a year on - people are split almost down the middle about whether the Conservatives would have been better off going it alone than forming a coalition with the Lib Dems, and only marginally more likely to think that the Con & LD coalition has worked out better than a Lab & LD coalition would have (though I expect the answers to that question will be wholly and predictably partisan).
41% of people agreed with the statement that the Liberal Democrats should pull of the coalition if they don't get the changes they want to the NHS policy... though I expect a large chunk of those responses will be from people who think the Lib Dems should pull out of the coalition anyway. YouGov asked a similar "should the Lib Dems leave the coalition if..." question about the AV referendum back in March, but with more nuanced answer options. 11% of people though the Lib Dems should leave the coalition if the AV referendum was defeated... but 27% thought they should leave it anyway.
Finally, ComRes found 41% of people supported the military action in Libya, with 38% opposed. When they previously asked back in March they found 35% in support but 43% opposed. Regular readers will recall some debate here over why when the conflict in Libya first broke out ComRes were showing people opposed, while YouGov were showing people supportive. I put forward two obvious possible causes - YouGov presented it as a joint action between the USA, France and the UK, while ComRes only mentioned the UK. The other difference was that YouGov asked the question by itself, while ComRes asked it as part of a rotated set of statements including ones about British soldiers risking death and injury - this time round ComRes didn't ask the other statements about Libya, so I suspect the change may be due to question order effects rather than an increase in support for Libyan intervention.
Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov voting intention figures for the Sunday Times at 10pm, and a YouGov poll for the Scotsman on Sunday (no time for that - presumably whenever the SoS release them).
