Clegg effect boosts Lib Dems in first poll of 2008
The first poll of the year shows the Conservative gap narrowing, and a boost for the Liberal Democrats under their new leader. The Populus poll has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 37%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 19%(+3).
We had some contradictory polls last month, some showing the Tory lead narrowing, others showing it growing to record levels. This poll again shows Labour recovering slightly - the one point change is not itself significant, but the context of the ICM and YouGov polls last month that also showed them up, it appears that they have rallied somewhat from the disasters at the end of last year.
More significantly this is the first poll that can really show the Clegg effect - the other polls since he became leader were either done partially before the result, or in the case of the last YouGov poll, has a fieldwork period that hardly instilled confidence. It looks like the change of leadership has given them a long overdue boost, putting them up at 19%, the highest the Lib Dems have recorded in a Populus poll since April (and at the expense of the Conservatives).
A poll showing the Tory lead cut by 4 points should at first sight be a good poll for Brown, yet the Times headlines it "Fresh poll blow for Gordon Brown as David Cameron cements lead". In one sense it's a reflection of the media environment Gordon Brown has to operate within these days, a poll shows his party up and his opponent's lead cut and it's a "blow". However, this isn't going into UKPollingReport's "crap media reporting of polls" hall of fame - while this poll certainly isn't good for Cameron, it isn't particularly good for Brown either, a one point recovery having dropped 5 points last month isn't something for Labour to celebrate, and certainly isn't as positive as the ICM and YouGov findings. More importantly, the Times headline refers not to bad news for Labour in the voting intention figures, but to poll findings about Brown himself, which are certainly a blow.
On having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister Brown now trails Cameron by 40% to 44%, where he lead Cameron by 9 points as recently as November. Brown's reputation for strength, shattered by "chicken Saturday" has not recovered, he leads Cameron by only 6 points when he once dominated him with a 32 point margin.
Looking at the 1-10 scores that Populus ask people to rate party leaders upon, Brown has fallen to an average of 4.6, down from 5.79 in September, the lowest he has yet recorded and lower than nearly ever score that Tony Blair recorded - to put it in context, it's the sort of figure Michael Howard and Ming Campbell used to record. David Cameron meanwhile was up to 5.07, but first time he's popped back above the 5.0 mark since January last year. (Clegg is even lower than Brown, but a very large proportion of respondents said don't know). It looks as though while Labour are rallying slightly, perceptions of Brown himself are still deteriorating.
