By-election poll for Feltham and Heston

Anthony Wells

— 1 min read
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Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a poll of Feltham & Heston voters ahead of the by-election next week (while the company who carried out the fieldwork is not identified, Lord Ashcroft normally uses Populus). Full tabs are here, and the fieldwork was carried out between last Thursday and this Tuesday.

The topline figures, taking into account likelihood to vote and (it would appear) reallocating don't knows in Populus's usual manner, are CON 30%, LAB 52%, LDEM 10%, Others 8%. This suggests a comfortable hold for the Labour party. Compared to the general election these would suggest Labour increasing their support by about 8 points, the Conservatives down by about 4 points, the Liberal Democrats down by 4 points, a swing of 6%.

A six point swing from Con to Lab would be pretty much in line with national polls (it is the equivalent of a five point Labour lead in national polls), although the drop in Lib Dem support suggested by the poll is much less than in GB polls. That said, many polls show the Lib Dems losing about 13-14% since the general election, and that's how much support they had to start with in Feltham and Heston!

In levels of campaigning Labour seem to be most active, followed by the Tories - 39% report receiving a Labour leaflet, 38% a Tory leaflet, 27% a Lib Dem one. 15% have seen a Labour poster, 12% a Tory one, 9% a Lib Dem one. 15% say they have been doorstepped by Labour, 8% the Conservatives, 5% the Lib Dems. 9% have been phoned by Labour, 5% by the Conservatives and so on. While I'd need to dig out some past figures for comparison, all-in-all these seem rather low figures for a by-election - probably because of how briskly it was called, there appears to have been quite a low level of activity.

Finally, there's an interesting straw in the wind for the mayoral election. While Labour are 22 points ahead in voting intention for the by-election, asked how people in Feltham and Heston will vote in the

mayoral election Boris and Ken and neck-and-neck on 37% a piece. 23% of those people saying they would vote Labour in the by-election say they would vote Boris for mayor.

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