Boundary Review - which seats face the chop?

There are plenty of lists out of there of the seats that have been untouched by the boundary review, but I haven't seen one of the seats that have been abolished. This is probably because it is not actually as much of a clear cut question as you might think, especially given the extent of the proposed changes. There are many seats where is it not entirely clear which seat should be regarded as the successor to which current seat and which seat has vanished (I expect if there is a list I've missed, it won't necessarily tally with mine!)

What I've done in analysing them therefore, is to treat each new seat as the successor to the seat which makes up the biggest proportion of the electorate of the new seat. If an existing seat makes up the biggest chunk of more than one new seat, I regard it as the predecessor to the seat where most of its voters went, treating the other seat as the successor to the seat that gave it the next biggest chunk of voters. It's not perfect, but it does allow me to being some sense to the new seats. On that basis, these are the seats that will be abolished - Batley and Spen (Lab) Mike Wood Bexleyheath and Crayford (Con) David Evennett Birmingham Hodge Hill (Lab) Liam Byrne Blaydon (Lab) David Anderson Blyth Valley (Lab) Ronnie Campbell Brigg and Goole (Con) Andrew Percy Dulwich and West Norwood (Lab) Tessa Jowell Ealing Southall (Lab) Virenda Sharma Edmonton (Lab) Andy Love Faversham and Mid Kent (Con) Hugh Robertson Hyndburn (Lab) Graham Jones Kensington (Con) Malcolm Rifkind Knowsley (Lab) George Howarth Leigh (Lab) Andy Burnham Mid Bedfordshire (Con) Nadine Dorries Mid Derbyshire (Con) Pauline Latham North Dorset (Con) Robert Walter North Herefordshire (Con) Bill Wiggin North Tyneside (Lab) Mary Glindon Penrith and The Border (Con) Rory Stewart Romsey and Southampton North (Con) Caroline Nokes Rushcliffe (Con) Ken Clarke Sedgefield (Lab) Phil Wilson Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough (Lab) David Blunkett Shipley (Con) Philip Davies South West Norfolk (Con) Elizabeth Truss Stone (Con) Bill Cash Truro and Falmouth (Con) Sarah Newton Weaver Vale (Con) Graham Evans West Bromwich East (Lab) Tom Watson Wirral South (Lab) Alison McGovern Witham (Con) Priti Patel Wolverhampton South East (Lab) Pat McFadden Wyre and Preston North (Con) Ben Wallace Another four seats have a pretty tenuous connection to the seat I've technically got as their successor, and some people may regard them as having been effectively abolished too.

Ilford South (makes up only 21% of Wanstead & Woodford - most goes into Ilford North) Leeds Central (makes up only 18% of Leeds South & Outwood - most goes into Leeds South West and Morley, the successor of Morley & Outwood) Birmingham Selly Oak (makes up only 25% of Birmingham Edgbaston - most goes into Birmingham Hall Green) Oldham West and Royton (makes up only 10% of Rochdale South - most goes into Ashton-under-Lyne)

Now, before we progress it's worth noting that some of these MPs are in much better positions than others. In some cases, while their seat has been abolished, the transfer of some of their voters has tranformed a neighbouring opposition seat into a seat notionally held by their party. For example, David Evennett's Bexleyheath & Crayford seat has been abolished, but the transfer of some of his voters into Labour held Erith & Thamesmead (which becomes the new Erith seat) means that it is transformed into a notionally Conservative seat. I don't know what David Evernett's plans are, perhaps he'll challenge James Brokenshire for the safe Conservative Bexley & Sidcup seat instead, but he is not left without a Conservative voting home.

Some of these seats are also only regarded as being abolished by the slimmest of whiskers. For example, the new Wednesbury seat is made up of four wards from West Bromwich East and four wards from West Bromwich West. Because there are 384 more voters from West Brom West than there are from West Brom East, I've regarded West Brom East as the seat that faces the chop. In practice, I'm sure Tom Watson would have just as much of a claim on the Labour nomination for the new Wednesbury seat as Adrian Bailey.

Before anyone asks, I should also explain why Leigh and Mid-Derbyshire are there. Under the proposed boundaries there will indeed still be seats called Leigh and Mid Derbyshire, but the new Leigh seat is mostly made up Worsley & Eccles South, while the new Mid-Derbyshire is mostly made up of Amber Valley.

Finally, you may also have noticed that there are too many seats here. There are 34 seats in my list, yet England is only losing 31 seats. The difference is made up of three seats that should be regarded as "new seats". One of these is obviously the extra seat in the Isle of Wight. A second is Newcastle upon Tyne South - made up of bits of the existing three Newcastle seats which all continue to exist in their own right, but with the addition of parts of Northumberland and/or North Tyneside. Finally there is Huntingdon - most of the current Huntingdon seat forms the basis of the new St Neots, but the remainder forms a continuing Huntingdon seat. It's probably a lot more intuitive to regard St Neots as the new seat, but either way there's a new seat in the area.

Next up I'll be looking at marginality.

UPDATE: Tonight's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%