A steady picture from ComRes

A ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday shows the main two parties static. The topline figures, with changes from the last ComRes poll, are CON 37%(nc), LAB 36%(nc), LDEM 14%(-3). The poll was conducted on the 10th and 11th December.

The previous poll from ComRes was the famous one showing a one point Tory lead (as does this one, obviously!). That this one shows the same suggests that one wasn't a rogue. The poll isn't, however, completely static

- there is a 3 point drop in the level of Lib Dem support. The previous ComRes poll had showed them leaping by 5 points on the back of a sample that contained considerably more 2005 Lib Dem voters than their previous poll - I wouldn't be surprised if this shift in the Lib Dem level of support has the same sort of reason - we'll see when the tables emerge.

Meanwhile ComRes also tested four more statements. Unsurprisingly a majority (55%) disagree that taxes would be lower under the Conservatives - few polls ever show many people believing that any party would actually cut taxes. 52% agree that the fall in the value of the pound shows that Gordon Brown's economic plans probably won't work - which again, doesn't tell us a huge amount - people are probably pretty pessimistic about the economy anyway. As with previous polls that have shown public concern over borrowing, 67% agreed that the government was planning to borrow too much. The most surprising of the four statements to me was "The Conservative response to the economic crisis seems to me like a 'do nothing' strategy" - normally polls reveal a pretty cynical attitude towards politicians from the public, and the Conservatives hadn't seemed to have got any obvious alternative strategy across to the public, so I'd expected majority agreement here. In fact only 45% agreed, with 45% disagreeing - suggesting Labour's line of attack on the Conservatives hasn't chimed as much as it might have (not that this seems to be helping the Conservatives in topline voting intentions!)

I'm expecting at least one more poll to be released tonight, so we'll see if they paint a consistent picture.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Looking at the recalled past vote in the survey, the reverse in the Lib Dem support does indeed appear to be more down to the make up of the sample than a great decline in support. In the last poll 12% of respondents said they voted Lib Dem in 2005. In this poll 9% did - so only three-quarters as many Lib Dems. It also makes it look rather less like unambigously good news for Labour. In the last poll 20% of the sample claimed they voted Tory in 2005,

24% Labour. In this poll only 18% said they voted Tory last time, 26% said they voted Labour. No change in the poll is not good news for Labour if the political make of the sample was more Labour to start with.

I should add that I am very confused by ComRes's past vote weighting and why it varies so much. I did think that perhaps the first table in their pdf results was showing the unweighted recalled past vote, which ComRes then use to generate their target weightings. Having asked Andrew Hawkins about it though he tells me those are the weighted figures, which seems very strange to me.