20 point Tory lead from YouGov
A YouGov poll in the SUnday Times has topline voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 45%(-4), LAB 25%(+2), LDEM 18%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 15th and 16th of May, so after the announcement of the increase in personal tax allowances in response to the fuss over the 10p tax rate.
Labour have narrowed the gap significantly, but the Conservatives remain 20 points ahead, still their second largest lead for decades. The previous poll was taken almost immediately after the local elections and Boris Johnson's victory and, I suspect, was a result of the aura of victory around the Tories at the time (for another example look back at Lib Dem support straight after Brent East when they got up to 31% briefly). They are still above where they were prior to the local elections, so it will be interesting to see where other pollsters put them.
The recovery could also, of course, be a result of that increase in tax rates, but the other questions in the poll suggest that went down badly. 47% thought it was a cynical ploy to bribe voters in the Crewe and Nantwich election (more on that later), with only 36% thinking it was a sensible move to correct a mistake. 47% also thought it made the government look weak, with only 23% thinking it made them look strong enough to admit mistakes.
Opinions of Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling were dire - only 17% thought Darling was up to the job of Chancellor, only 21% thought Brown was up to being Prime Minister. The percentage thinking Brown was doing a good job was 17%, with 78% thinking he was doing a bad job. Cameron and Osborne now have a 18 point lead over Brown and Darling as the team people would most trust to improve their family's standard of living.
YouGov also re-asked the same series of questions they used back in 2007 to measure the public perceptions of Brown and Cameron's qualities. The only one of Brown's ratings that has held up at all is honesty - 22% thought him honest in October 2007 (after the announcement of the non-election) and 22% think so now. In October 40% still thought him strong, now only 17% do. In October 27% thought him good in a crisis, now only 10% do, in October 20% thought him in touch, now it's 10%. The biggest transformations though are decisiveness and leadership. In October 2007 37% thought Brown was decisive, now that figure is a derisory 8%. In October 17% thought Brown a natural leader, now it is only 3%.
In contrast, despite having been in the role for over two years now David Cameron's figures are rising. Apart from honesty, where he is down to 17% from 20% last year, and in touch which is unchanged, he has risen on every other measure. Most noticeable was "a natural leader" up from 14% last year to 26% now. He appears to be growing into the role.
So, if Brown's perceptions have sunk so low, what of his future? 59% of people think Brown should stand down before the next election (though we'll have to wait and see the partisan split there, Tory supporters always say they want a Labour PM to go, it's the Labour split that's interesting). Asked who they would like to see succeed him if he did go, Jack Straw and David Miliband were the two frontrunners, picked by 14% and 12%, though all this really tells us is that they are the more recognisable names.
