As Sunak's Personal Decline Continues, Is Starmer more Cameron than Blair?
Ipsos have published their most recent political monitor, and one finding has been doing the rounds on Twitter. Sunak's net satisfaction now sits at -29%, down 8% on December. Meanwhile Starmer has overtaken Sunak on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, based on a net shift of 12% since November. It doesn't look good for Sunak.
What is perhaps more troubling for the PM is that these trends aren't isolated. Over comparable periods, Redfield & Wilton have seen Sunak's approval drop by 12%, YouGov by 5% and Opinium by 7%. On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, YouGov have seen Starmer's margin increase by 5% since November. As today's polling was conducted prior to the fallout from Nadhim Zahawi's tax affairs, there isn't much to suggest they will recover in the short term either.
Elsewhere in Ipsos' latest monitor, there are some silver linings for the Conservatives – mainly related to the absence of enthusiasm for Starmer. Keir Starmer still has negative net satisfaction, and, by an admittedly very slim margin, voters don't think he "has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister". This specifically can be better contextualised by comparing his current response rate to former Leaders of the Opposition.
Although Starmer outperforms Corbyn and Milliband on readiness to be Prime Minister - the latter by a larger margin - he falls significantly below both Tony Blair and David Cameron. It goes without saying that, on this question, Starmer would rather be in the company of the latter two.
In the wake of 1997 invocations, it may be of interest to note that in April 2008, two years out from an election, Cameron had a net 0% on the above question - Starmer now has -1%. At the same time, the Conservatives were seeing 20% poll leads over Labour.
Of course, even with middling personal enthusiasm, Starmer is still in a far better position than Sunak – and is outperforming both Corbyn and Milliband. The Labour Leader should also take comfort from the fact that in all of these areas - from satisfaction to readiness for government - he seems to be in the ascendancy as Sunak declines. Either way, the next election isn't set to take place for another year at least. As debate continues on whether the next election is set to be a 1997 or a 1992, there is one obvious alternative - it won't be either.
