13 Weeks to go

Anthony Wells

— 3 min read
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It's been a fairly quiet week for GB voting intention polls, but an interesting one for constituency polling. For GB polls we've had just the regular weekly polls (Opinium for the Observer are now every week) and TNS.

Opinium/Observer (30/1/15) - CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6% YouGov/S Times (30/1/15) - CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6% Ashcroft (1/2/15) - CON 31%, LAB 31%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% TNS BMRB (2/2/15) - CON 27%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 18%, GRN 8% Populus (2/2/15) - CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% YouGov/Sun (2/2/15) - CON 33%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% YouGov/Sun (3/2/15) - CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (4/2/15) - CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (5/2/15) - CON 32%, LAB 33%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% Populus (5/2/15) - CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%

There's been no great movement in the polls, but a couple of three point Labour leads and a six point lead from TNS (whose methodology change doesn't seem to have stopped them being the most "pro-Labour" house after all) have moved the UKPR average to CON 31%(-1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 15%(nc), GRN 6%(nc). This week only one poll showed a Tory lead, so that crossover that looked possible a fortnight ago seems to have faded.

Constituency Polls

Given the large SNP leads in national Scottish polling Lord Ashcroft's first Scottish constituency polls this week had been long awaited. Rather than a selection of seats from all across Scotland they concentrated on Labour areas that voted YES in the referendum. These showed an even larger swing to the SNP than the national Scottish polls had suggested, which would result in Labour losing some of their safest Scottish seats like Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. Whether the Labour vote is holding up any better in areas that voted NO we can't yet tell. The details of the Ashcroft polling is here and my analysis of it is here.

On the same day we got a Survation poll of Sheffield Hallam for Unite which showed Labour ten points ahead in Nick Clegg's own seat, in contrast to a previous Lord Ashcroft poll of the constituency which had shown the Liberal Democrats very narrowly ahead. I wrote about the methodological differences that caused these contrasting polls here, but either way you look at it Nick Clegg should not take his own seat for granted come the general election.

Finally, while this blog is called UKPollingReport, it's often a bit more GBPollingReport - most polls do not include Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland polls are rare creatures. This week though there was a constituency poll in Northern Ireland, carried out by LucidTalk in Belfast East - the former seat of Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson, lost to the Alliance Party in 2010. Topline figures there with changes from the general election are DUP 34%(+1), Alliance 29%(-8), UUP 15%(-6), PUP 7%(n/a), TUV 3%(-2), SF 2%(nc), UKIP 2%(n/a), GRN 1%(n/a), SDLP 1%(nc). Full tabs are here.

Week five

  • Both parties started the week talking about education - the Conservatives academies, and Labour tuition fees. Academies are a flagship policy of the Conservatives, but not necessarily a popular one. When Nicky Morgan was appointed Education Secretary last year YouGov found 40% of people thought she should abandon the policy of turning schools into academies compared to 32% in support.
  • Labour attacked the government's tuition fees policy. Labour's own policy has yet to be announced, but there are rumours of a reduction to £6000. University Vice-Chancellors attacked this idea in the papers, warning about the impact on university funding. Public opinion is likely to be on Labour's side - in December YouGov found people were in favour of a reduction in tuition fees by 54% to 21%, even if it meant less funding for universities
  • On Tuesday MPs voted in favour of allowing Three Parent IVF treatment to prevent the transmission of mitochondrial disease. At the weekend the YouGov/Sunday Times poll had found 40% of people in favour of the change, 30% opposed and 30% saying don't know.
  • Labour came under criticism from various business leaders, primarily Stefano Pessina the boss of Boots. Last year YouGov found 27% of people saw Labour as a pro-business party, 21% as anti-business. In comparison 66% saw the Tories as pro-business, 5% anti-business. Whether people necessarily see being pro-business as a good thing is a different matter entirely... more on this on Sunday.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015 and Elections Etc are below. All have the SNP prediction ticking up a bit (or in May 2015, a lot).

Elections Etc - Hung Parliament, CON 282(nc), LAB 279(-1), LD 23(-1), SNP 41(+1), UKIP 3(nc) Election Forecast - Hung Parliament, CON 282(-1), LAB 283(-2), LD 24(-3), SNP 37(+5), UKIP 2(nc) May 2015 - Hung Parliament, CON 270(-10), LAB 272(-8), LD 25(+1), SNP 56(+18), UKIP 4(-1)

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