The News of the World has a new ICM poll of marginal seats in tomorrow's paper. ICM's sample covered the 97 seats where Labour are in first place and the Conservatives in second place, and where the Conservatives need a swing between 4% and 10%. The
I've seen various people pick up this article by Julian Glover today, so it probably needs some background. On Wednesday there was a joint conference with the BPC and the National Centre for Research Methods and at the end of the day the chairman put all the speakers
One thing we've seen over the last few months is pressure groups commissioning helpful polls showing that, lo and behold, adopting the policy that they are campaigning for would be really fantastic for the electoral prospects of whatever party they are trying to twist to their end. So,
We approach a general election and we have the first sighting of the traditional "what if the polls are wrong" article. Thankfully, given that sometimes these beasts are extravaganzas of ill-informed and out-of-date tripe, this one is by Julian Glover and is generally sensible. What Julian's
The SNP have released new figures from a YouGov poll. Constituency voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament stand at CON 14%(-4), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 13%(+1), SNP 35%(+3). Sadly regional voting intentions were not asked, so it can't be translated into a projected Scottish Parliament
There is also a new YouGov poll out tomorrow for the Sunday Times, which paints a somewhat different trend to that of ComRes. Topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%. The previous YouGov poll was that huge 10,000 job for the Sun. The overall voting intention figures
ComRes have their first poll of 2010 in the Indy on Sunday tomorrow. The topline figures, with changes from ComRes's previous poll just before Christmas, are CON 42%(+4), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 19%(nc). Others are down to 10%, from 14%. This represents yet another post Hoon-Hewitt
There is at least one new poll tonight and there may well be others. As John Rentoul said in his post earlier today, while we had a few polls conducted immediately after the Hoon-Hewitt attempted coup (which mostly showed a small shift away from Labour), today's poll or
ITV Wales have a new poll of Welsh voting intentions by YouGov. Topline voting intentions, with changes from YouGov's previous Welsh poll in November are CON 32%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(-1), Plaid Cymru 13%(-1). This represents a swing of 9.15% from the general
The tables for Populus's poll are now available here and do indeed include lots of interesting data on the party leaders. As I wrote in Monday's post, Gordon Brown's ratings have improved considerably since Populus asked a similar bank of questions in September. While
Populus's monthly poll for the Times is out here. The topline figures from Populus's last poll at the beginning of December are CON 41%(+3), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 19%(-1). The poll was carried out over the weekend, so after Labour's leadership ructions
There is a new AngusReid/Politicalbetting poll out with topline figures of CON 40%(nc), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 20%(nc). I'll do a full post later when, with luck, we may have a populus poll to mull over too. UPDATE: Clearly there is, quite literally, no change
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