But YouGov show lead back to pre-HoonHewitt levels

There is also a new YouGov poll out tomorrow for the Sunday Times, which paints a somewhat different trend to that of ComRes. Topline figures are CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%.

The previous YouGov poll was that huge 10,000 job for the Sun. The overall voting intention figures for that were CON 40%, LAB 30% - but because the Hoon-Hewitt plot broke right in the middle of the fieldwork it ended up being split into two polls, the first "pre-HH" part showed voting intentions of CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 17%. The final "post-HH" part showed figures of CON 42%, LAB 30%, LDEM 16% - so from YouGov's most recent measure of voting intention the Conservatives are down 2, Labour up 1 and the Lib Dems up 2.

The suggestion here, therefore, is that Labour's leadership ructions caused a temporary shift towards the Conservatives while it was in the news, but now the news agenda has moved on it has done no real lasting damage. Of course, with ComRes showing an increased Conservative score we need to wait for more polling before we can be certain.

YouGov polls for the Sunday Times normally include questions on a broad range of issues. This one included some questions on the Iraq inquiry. 52% of respondents thought that Tony Blair has deliberately misled the country, with 32% thinking he "genuinely believed in the threat". 23% of respondents thought that Blair should "face war crimes charges".

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management