Yousaf Holds Narrow Lead in SNP Leadership Race
On Friday, Savanta released the first polling of SNP members ahead of their leadership contest. In common with the preference of Scottish voters, and SNP voters, the SNP membership opt for "Don't Know" ahead of any one candidate. Though, beyond this the membership does show a relative preference Humza Yousaf over Kate Forbes. Yousaf is sat on 31%, to Kate Forbes on 25% as Ash Regan trails on 11%.
Although this seems to show that Yousaf is the favourite, it's hardly a comfortable position. He leads by 6% when 32% are as yet undecided. Taking into account the margin of error and the fact that SNP members won't finish voting until March 27th - in three weeks' time - it seems too close to call.
Whilst it's likely that undecided voters may fall somewhat in Yousaf's favour, Savanta's analysis finds this is unlikely to take him above the 50% threshold. In this instance, the outcome may come down to the electoral system of the SNP contest, which - based on the candidates' positions - may work in Kate Forbes' favour.
As previously discussed, under the single transferable vote system, the lowest ranking candidate is eliminated and their votes redistributed. Considering the fact Ash Regan looks to be eliminated first - and that her positions are more in line with Kate Forbes - where her support goes may well prove decisive. Yousaf will hope he can win over enough members to avoid relying on Regan.
