YouGov/Telegraph shows Tories 14 points ahead

A fortnight ago, shortly after the budget, YouGov produced a poll showing a startling 16 point Tory lead, which at first glance looked like an obvious rogue. A couple of days later though an ICM poll showed a 13 point lead, suggesting that the double-point Tory lead was genuine and the budget had somehow led to a dramatic shift in party support.

The question following that was whether there really had been a sea-change in public opinion, or whether it was just a very term reaction to negative economic news and we'd get back to more run of the mill voting intention figures in the next round of polls. Since then we've had the Easter holidays, which pretty much precluded any polling. In tomorrow's Telegraph though we've got the first poll since Easter, YouGov's monthly monitor, and it suggests the Conservatives are maintaining that election winning lead.

The topline voting intention figures, with changes from a fortnight ago, are CON 43%(nc), LAB 29%(+2), no sign of the Lib Dem figure yet on the Telegraph website. Labour are slightly higher than a fortnight ago, but the real significance is to confirm that the jump in the Tory lead was more than just a flash in the pan.

Full report tomorrow when I've seen the details of the poll.

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