YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 38, LAB 40, LD 9

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%. During the week we had a poll showing the parties neck and neck, and then two showing narrow Conservative leads, suggesting the underlying picture is a the Conservatives and Labour tying.

It's interesting to ponder the reason for this. It is a lasting effect from David Cameron's European veto in December, possibly because it is has improved perceptions of Cameron himself as a strong leader? Or alternatively has the European veto effect faded, but been replaced by a negative polling impact from Labour's troubles, with much media discussion of the problems facing Ed Miliband?

I'll do a proper write up of the Sunday Times poll tomorrow. Tonight there is also an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph covering Scottish Independence (I have no idea whether it includes voting intention).