YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 37, LAB 41, LDEM 7

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 7%, Others 15%. It's a four point lead for Labour and a very low score for the Lib Dems, the lowest since last month.

Normal caveats apply, it could the start of a trend, or it could just be normal margin of error - we've had one 4 point and one 5 point Lab lead this month, and a poll last month showing the Lib Dems at seven, and in both cases things were back to rather more normal figures the next day.

That said, while YouGov's daily polls are flitting between Labour and Conservative leads due to normal variation within the margin of error, we are seeing rather more Labour leads than Tory ones, and rather bigger Labour leads than Tory ones, suggesting the underlying position is a small Labour lead of a point or so (the average Labour lead in YouGov's polls so far this month is 1.5 points).

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