YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 33, LAB 44, LDEM 10

My expectation was that YouGov's 11 point Labour lead on Thursday night would turn out to be a rogue, and that today's poll would be more in line with the lead of 6 or 7 points that we've been seeing lately. However, the actual figures tonight are CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 10% - a second eleven point lead!

This suggests there has been a genuine drop in Conservative support (33% is the lowest YouGov have had them since the election), though it is still worth noting that while this poll is in line with Thursday's, the ComRes poll we saw yesterday doesn't appear to have picked up the same trend.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management