YouGov/Sun - CON 41, LAB 38, LDEM 8

Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 38%, LDEM 8%. It's the biggest Conservative lead YouGov have shown since December 2010, but normal caveats apply: it could be the start of a trend, or it could just be normal random sample variation.

Over the last fortnight YouGov's figures have ranged between CON 38-41%, LAB 38-41%, LDEM 7-11%... so while this is at the top end of recent Conservative numbers and the bottom end of recent Labour scores, it's not out of line with them.

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Local Elections Expectations Management