YouGov/Sun - CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%

YouGov's daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 38%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%.

The four point lead is probably on the low side due to normal random variation, but YouGov's daily poll does seem to be showing the Labour lead down a bit from that earlier in the month. For a short while YouGov was showing a Labour lead consistently at 7 or above, and showed two 10 point leads within a single week. In the past week only one poll has shown the lead above 6 and we've had two polls showing 4 point leads.

My guess is that it's down to a change of the news agenda. Go back a week or two and political news was largely dominated by stories about cuts - about the state of the finances, closing libraries, cutting local services, selling forests and so on. In the last week the political news has instead been about AV, Libya and David Cameron being rude about European judges.

I would caution Conservatives against taking much cheer from it though - the tide hasn't turned, spending cuts and the state of the economy will certainly be back at the top of the news agenda soon enough, and will likely get right back to sapping government support.

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