YouGov/Sun - CON 37, LAB 41, LDEM 10

Last night's YouGov poll had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%.

I'm still looking through the provisional recommendations of the boundary review. In the fullness of time I'll produce some proper analysis, lists of which seats are abolished (though the changes are very extensive, and in many cases it's difficult to say which seat is really the successor to another seat), which notionally change hands and the overall partisan effects.

The Guardian have a crude estimate up already, based on the assumption that party support is uniformly distributed within seats, which has the Conservatives losing 6, Labour 14, the Lib Dems 10. I'm aiming at getting a proper projection completed today.

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Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management