Tonight's YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. Back to a six point Labour lead, but still below the sort of 7-9 point Labour lead we had been seeing.
Perhaps whatever caused the narrowing of the polls is fading again - a purely short term boost, and we'll have 8 point leads again before long. Alternativly this is just normal margin of error variation around a Labour lead of 4 or 5 points. Time will tell.
Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?
According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,
Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -
Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour
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