YouGov/Sun - CON 35, LAB 39, LD 8, UKIP 11

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 39%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 11%. The four point Labour lead follows a lead of seven points yesterday and three points on Monday. Normal caveats apply about taking a single poll out of context - a four point lead is clearly towards the lower end of YouGov's current range - but the underlying average does appear to be falling. Full tabs are here.

While I'm here, I'm seen comments on twitter getting excited/concerned about today's poll showing the Conservatives ahead amongst under 25s. This is something I wrote about last month. The brief version is that age cross breaks are only small so have large margins of error, especially for under 25s which tends to be the smallest age group with the largest proportion of don't knows or wouldn't votes. This means figures for under 25s are extremely volatile, and will swing about wildly from day to day. Taking just one unusual looking one is extremely misleading! Looking at the trend in YouGov's recent polls it is very clear that, on average, Labour still enjoy a solid lead amongst under 25s.

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