YouGov/Sun - CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 14
The daily YouGov poll for the Sun tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14%. Putting them all together today's four Westminster polls are:
YouGov/Sun - CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 14% Populus - CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13% Ashcroft - CON 34%, LAB 32%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15% ICM/Guardian - CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 13%, UKIP 15%
Two very small Labour leads, two very small Conservative leads. Levels of Conservative support are actually pretty similar across these polls, as is the level of UKIP support (though other pollsters show contrasting figures), there's the usual higher level of Lib Dem support from ICM and there's significant variation in the level of Labour support shown. What is consistent across all four polls is that Labour and the Conservatives are very close to one another in support. In terms of narrative and political impact a poll showing a one point Labour lead looks very different to one showing a one point Conservative lead. Statistically though really isn't much difference between them in polls with a margin of error of about three points. On today's polls the parties are looking neck-and-neck, let's see if it stays that way...and what political impact those polls showing a Tory lead have...