YouGov/Sun - CON 30, LAB 36, LD 8, UKIP 17

This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%. Seventeen percent for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown since May 2013, also in the aftermath of a strong performance for UKIP at the ballot box. Looking at the poll in the context of the Lord Ashcroft and Populus polls yesterday it looks to me as if Labour's lead may have opened up a bit in the aftermath of the European elections as UKIP get a boost from their strong performance. If last year is any guide, we should expect UKIP support to subside a bit after the immediate impact of the election success fades from people's minds, but time will tell where it settles at. Tabs for the YouGov poll are here.

Yesterday there was also a new Scottish referendum poll from Ipsos MORI. Their topline voting intention figures were YES 36%(+4), NO 54%(-3) - changes are since MORI's last quarterly poll. A movement towards YES, though MORI generally show one of the largest leads for NO, so even with that movement it leaves NO a chunky lead. Full details are here.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management