YouGov/Sun - 43/36/14

Tonight's daily YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 14% - quite a change from having the two main parties equal on 39% yesterday. Technically of course it doesn't have to mean anything - both are within the margin of error of the average of YouGov's recent polls which is around about CON 41% or 42%, LAB around 38% and the Lib Dems around 12%.

My guess is that part of today's poll is probably a Lib Dem gain from conference coverage - 14% is at the top of their current range in YouGov's polls - but that the high Tory lead is probably just a outlier. Of course, it could be the other way around, with yesterday's 39% a piece being an outlier and this being a true reflection, but yesterday's was at least in line with the general trend of a shrinking Tory lead. We'll see tomorrow.