YouGov/Sun - 35/30/24

Tonight's YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 24%(-4), a sharp drop for the Liberal Democrats.

Just when it was looking as though the position had settled down, we suddenly have a shift in support. It could be the "Cleggmania" bubble bursting, or people pulling away from a hung Parliament after the heavy Conservative campaigning against it, or Liberal Democrat supporters heeding the call of Labour figures to vote tactically for Labour.... or, it could just be an outlier. I always urge caution when a poll shows a sudden change - wait to see if it is reflected in other polling.

The only other GB poll I am expecting tonight is ComRes (though their fieldwork is one day behind YouGov, so if there has been a sudden drop in Lib Dem support I wouldn't necessarily expect to see it reflected by ComRes). I expect most pollsters will be saving their final polls of the campaign until tomorrow evening, but we shall see.

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