YouGov/Channel 4 news poll on the Scottish referendum

Following the weekend polling on Scottish Independence, there is a new YouGov poll of Scotland for Channel 4 news out today. Full tabs are here. Topline voting intention figures show the SNP continuing to hold a healthy lead in Holyrood voting intentions and now also ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions.

Westminster: CON 16%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, SNP 37% Holyrood constituency: CON 13%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, SNP 44% Holyrood regional: CON 13%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, SNP 39%, Grn 5%

On the referendum, there is an pretty even split on whether it should be a straight in-out question (43%) or a three way referendum (46%). On the timings, 38% would like it this year or next, 33% would like it delayed until 2014.

Finally, on actual voting intention in a referendum, on "devo-max" 58% of those who gave an answer said they would vote in favour, 42% said they would vote against. On full independence, 39% said they would vote in favour, 61% said they would vote against.

The survey asked the questions as mock-ballot papers, which as ballot papers tend not to have abstain or don't know boxes, means it gets answers from the vast majority of people. If you instead take only those who said they were 10/10 certain to vote it shifts things slightly in favour of extra devolution or independence, with respondents backing devo-max by 60-40 and opposing Scottish independence by 41-59.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management