YouGov Welsh poll
YouGov have published that rarest of creatures, a Welsh opinion poll. In this Parliament so far all we've had for Wales are a couple of Beaufort research polls, who don't have the most shining reputation, and some commissioned by the BBC which haven't included voting intention, so it's a delight to have some proper figures.
According to YouGov voting intention in Wales stands at CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 12%, PC 15%. Since the general election this represents a 9 point rise for the Conservatives, a 9 point drop for Labour, a 6 point fall for the Lib Dems and a 2 point rise for Plaid Cymru - the equivalent of a 9 point swing from Labour to the Conservatives, and roughly the same sort of figures we've been seeing in GB polls, so Wales seems to be following the national trend.
On a uniform swing, these figures would see Labour lose 10 seats, the Conservatives gain 9, the Lib Dems lose 2 and Plaid Cymru gain 3.
